Seven schools predicted to be over capacity by 2031, planning board says 

MCPS enrollment overall expected to decline, imbalance largely in elementary schools

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July 1, 2026 11:34 a.m.

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Seven Montgomery County public schools are projected to be over capacity enough for the county to charge fees to housing that is developed in those school areas by the 2030-2031 school year, including James Hubert Blake High and Winston Churchill High, according to a report from the Montgomery County Planning Board.  

Blake and Francis Scott Key Middle in Silver Spring; Churchill in Potomac; Cashell Elementary and Mill Creek Towne Elementary in Rockville; Burning Tree Elementary in Bethesda; and Cabin Branch Elementary in Clarksburg,  are projected to be over capacity by 2031.  

Planning board documents released Thursday project that by 2031 Blake will be over capacity by 288 students, Churchill by 243, 

Francis Scott Key by 142, Burning Tree Elementary by 99, Cabin Branch by 151, Cashell by 85 and Mill Creek Towne by 194.  

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The planning board outlined the capacity projections in the fiscal year 2027 annual school test and school utilization report, which considers the capacity of schools to determine whether to charge fees, known as Utilization Premium Payments (UPP), for new residential units within that school service area to mitigate the impact of the housing on school capacity.  

The annual school test takes into account projected enrollment four years into the future, as well as any plans to reassign students or capital improvement projects that are planned to create additional seats, including recent changes to boundary zones. For example, the district is set to reopen Charles W. Woodward High in Rockville, expand Northwood High in Silver Spring, move Thomas S. Wootton from Rockville to Crown High in Gaithersburg and implement new school boundaries, all of which are included in the annual school test.  

Based on the data, the planning board said that they would be sorting the schools in UPP tiers to determine the fees residential developments would pay if they build in that school service area.  

“A Tier 1 UPP placement indicates a school service area is projected to experience a moderate level of overutilization, Tier 2 indicates intermediate overutilization, and Tier 3 indicates a high level of overutilization,” the report said.  

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The areas that serve Blake, Churchill, Francis Scott Key and Cashell were placed in tier one. Burning Tree and Cabin Branch were placed in tier two and Mill Creek Towne was placed in tier three.  

The report noted that Montgomery County Public School’s (MCPS) enrollment declined across all school levels during the 2025-2026 school year, and is expected to continue to decrease. However, capacity levels across schools are imbalanced, the report said, especially in elementary school where many schools are over capacity.  

The report noted that the boundary study at the middle school and high school level is expected to improve capacity. MCPS is planning to begin a countywide elementary school boundary study and adopt new boundary assignments for elementary schools by May 2028, according to the MCPS website.  

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Originally published at Bethesdamagazine